A Forgotten Conflict: Violence in Kosovo Reemerges

Following the conclusion of NATO intervention in Kosovo, the majority ethnic Albanian nation has endured an uneasy peace with Serbia, with the latter maintaining that Kosovo remains an integral part of Serbia and never recognizing Kosovan independence. The results of the war were devastating: around 13,500 were killed and over 1.2 million were displaced.

Today, conflict between ethnic Serbians residing in the north of Kosovo and the central government of Kosovo has reemerged, stemming from the question of Serb autonomy within Kosovo.

Until recently, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić was in a more secure and enviable position than Serbian leadership during the Kosovo War. With ties between the European Union and Serbia growing stronger over the course of the last two decades, in the eyes of EU and United States mediators, Vučić was the more mature party during negotiations.

Indeed, this heightened willingness to negotiate led to the Serbian president accepting the EU blueprint for greater Serb autonomy in Kosovo proposed by Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and Miroslav Lajčak, EU Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue. However, this framework was rejected by Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti during the last round of talks, which concluded on September 14. During the negotiations, Kurti’s stubborn refusal to concede on Serb autonomy in Serb-majority areas led to EU leadership to even consider placing sanctions on Kosovo.

Since the last round of negotiations, however, much has changed. On September 24, a group of armed Serb paramilitary fighters numbering around 30 blocked a road near Bansjka, a village near Zvečan in northern Kosovo, and the resulting firefight with a Kosovar police patrol resulted in the death of a police officer.

The paramilitaries then retreated to Bansjka Monastery near the Serbia-Kosovo border, where three armed Serbs were killed and six were captured. A large cache of weapons was also allegedly recovered by the Kosovan military. The remaining Serb paramilitaries appear to have been able to withdraw into Serbia. In the end, the shootout represents one of the most significant episodes of violence since the conclusion of the Kosovo War in 1999.

In the aftermath of the violence, Serbian leadership and Vučić found themselves in a far less comfortable situation. Kurti claimed that Belgrade’s support and financial backing of “organized crime” elements responsible for the standoff. Interior Minister Xhelal Sveçla asserted the cache of ammunition and weapons recovered at Bansjka Monastery was large enough to equip several hundred soldiers, signaling the involvement of the Serbian government. Meanwhile, Vučić blamed Kurti’s heavy-handed policies and “terror” for leading to a “revolt” of local Serbs.

Further, the incident has drawn Vučić’s ability to adequately control Serb paramilitary organizations into question. EU officials have, in essence, placed Vučić in charge of ensuring Serb paramilitaries remain in line, and there is a real possibility that Vučić no longer exerts the kind of control he was previously thought to have. If the theory that Kosovo Serb leaders seek to distance themselves from Belgrade proves true, more violence and instability look likely.

On the other hand, it is also possible that Vučić initiated the standoff in an effort to add urgency to negotiations and pressure Kurti into concessions. Indeed, Vučić seemed more than empathetic towards the paramilitaries, with the Serbian government declaring Thursday, September 27 as a national day of mourning. If Belgrade is seen as endorsing the actions of Serb paramilitaries, it may lose its image as a regional promoter of stability it has recently cultivated and risks regaining its reputation as a warmonger engaging in ethnic conflicts.

The possibility of a larger conflict briefly emerged on September 29, when White House Spokesperson John Kirby announced the detection of a buildup of Serbian troops along the Kosovo border. With the presence of around 4,500 NATO troops engaged in peacekeeping in Kosovo, a renewed conflict between Serbia and NATO loomed in the minds of many, but the situation did not escalate further.

While the threat of military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo appears to have been minimized, negotiations have come to a standstill. The Western blueprint for the resolution of the Kosovo issue appears simple: Kosovo grants self-rule to the Serb minority in Kosovo under the Association of Serb Municipalities; in turn, Serbia recognizes the de-facto independence of Serbia. The last round of negotiations facilitated by the EU and the United States were unproductive, and with the re-emergence of violence in northern Kosovo, the two sides look farther apart than ever.