The Future of Militarization and Foreign Policy Outcomes in Mali

Summary

From its independence in 1960 to the present day, the West African nation of Mali has faced five military coups, each having significant social, political, and economic implications. During the past two years alone, in August 2020 and May 2021, Mali faced two coups that underscore the nation’s current political instability. In this research paper, Global Macro Team will forecast Mali’s military spending between December 2020 and December 2022 to examine the cascading effects of the August 2020 coup and the presence of the military in the government. The May 2021 coup led Mali’s military junta to face harsh sanctions from both the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) amidst an already weak economy. Through a variety of censorship policies and populist messaging, however, the junta has unified public perception in favor of increased military presence, leading to nationalist protests in Bamako against the ECOWAS sanctions. This nationalist fervor is not echoed throughout the country, however. Nearly 60% of Mali is impacted by jihadist and terrorist groups, the predominant ones being Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), and The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Particularly in the Sahel region, militants are establishing de-facto authorities, often with popular support. Mali’s terrorist threat has persisted since 2012 and has grown to an extent the current government cannot handle alone. Russia’s Wagner Group and the French military, among other foreign forces, have deployed in the country to assist the military, though French forces are withdrawing from the country after its eight-year presence as part of Operation Barkhane. Wagner Group in particular has greatly increased its presence in Mali in the power vacuum. Taken together, these factors, among others, indicate a 6.094% increase in military spending. Global Macro Team’s prediction was calculated using a Fermi-ization approach. Named after Italian Physicist Enrico Fermi, this process involves creating subdivisions and assigning weights to each in order to calculate a quantitative prediction. The team created three major subdivisions for this project: Domestic Influences, International Influences, and Economics of Mali.  The predicted increase in military spending is notable considering nearly 42% of Malians live below the poverty line. Moreover, as a visible trend seen in African countries, the transitional period between two distinct governments is crucial to determining the future of the country. With Wagner Group’s increased involvement and the current allocation of funds, Mali should be more closely observed heading into its elections and beyond.

Featured Photo: Alain Jocard/AFP